Did Listing Bush first on FL Ballot Help Him Win?

Research in Ohio shows effect for ballot order, suggests randomization

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George W. Bush was listed first on the ballot in every precinct in Florida.  The law in that state (as in some other states) specifies that the governor's political party  has its candidates listed first on all ballots.  The fact that Bush's name was listed first  probably was enough of an advantage to give him a win in that state's presidential election, according to recent research.

A 1998 study of Ohio elections published found that candidates received an average of 2.33 percent more votes when their names appeared first on the ballots, rather than when their names were listed last. Some Ohio races showed an effect as great as 6%. Name order was more likely to have an effect on races in which voters knew less about the candidates, according to Jon Krosnick, the study's author. 

Psychologists have long known that people have better recall for items presented first and last in a series of items. This research suggests that placing a candidate first is more effective than placing him or her last on a ballot.

"Bush's placement at the top of all Florida ballots almost certainly allowed him to win that state, given the closeness of the contest," Krosnick said. "George W. received an electoral boost by the fact that a Republican - his brother Jeb - is governor."

These findings suggest Bush's placement on top of the ballot probably didn't have a huge effect on his vote total, according to Krosnick. But since the difference in vote totals between Gore and Bush was miniscule it seems likely that name order affected enough votes to swing the election, he added. 

In the study, the researchers analyzed precinct-by-precinct vote returns for all the races in the 1992 elections held in Ohio's three largest counties: Franklin (which includes Columbus), Cuyahoga (Cleveland), and Hamilton (Cincinnati). 

Ohio (along with some other states) has a law that mandate that candidates' names be rotated in different precincts to eliminate the candidate name order bias. Should Florida have a similar law?  Krosnick thinks so.  "The results of this study shouldn't be ignored," Krosnick said. "Florida and other states should follow Ohio's lead and balance name order in future elections to ensure fair outcomes."

Why not mandate this at a national level for national elections?  Many aspects of the current U.S. electoral system are likely to be examined after the 2000 presidential elections.  The presidential election process is too important to allow states and counties to do things any old way.  The Florida vote in the presidential elections of 2000 is proof.

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Reference:
Krosnick, Jon and Miller, Joanne. Public Opinion Quarterly, 1998