MINNEAPOLIS / ST. PAUL--A study by University of Minnesota researchers has found that scores on the Graduate Record Examinations (GRE), a series of standardized tests widely used in determining admissions to graduate school, perform well as predictors of future success in graduate school. The GRE contains separate tests of verbal, quantitative and analytic abilities, as well as tests of knowledge in individual subjects. The study, the largest to date of the GRE's validity, is published in a recent issue of the Psychological Bulletin.

"There is no single 'magic measure' that will predict graduate student success perfectly," said lead investigator Nathan Kuncel, a research fellow in psychology. "But there are several very good measures we can use in combination." Kuncel's co-authors were fellow graduate student Sarah Hezlett and associate professor Deniz Ones.

The study was a "meta-analysis" in which Kuncel and his colleagues analyzed results from 1,521 previous studies of the GRE's predictive power, covering records of 82,659 graduate students. They looked for correlations between GRE scores and subsequent performance in graduate school as determined by eight indicators of success: overall graduate grade point average (GPA), first-year graduate GPA, comprehensive exam scores, faculty ratings, attainment of a graduate degree, time taken to complete the graduate degree, research productivity and the number of times a graduate student's research publications were cited by other authors.

Of all the components of the GRE, the tests of knowledge in specific subject areas tended to predict success most accurately, the researchers found. The subject-area tests predicted success "substantially better" than undergraduate GPA. Yet, said Kuncel, subject-area tests "aren't very well attended to by decision-makers at many schools."

One thing GRE scores couldn't predict was how long it would take individuals to earn graduate degrees, he said.

While the GRE held up very well as a predictor of success in graduate school, Kuncel said that, in his opinion, three major factors ultimately determine graduate student success, and GRE scores have varying abilities to measure them. The first factor is the ability to think and learn--what psychologists call general cognitive ability. This is measured by the GRE tests of verbal, quantitative and analytic abilities. Second is knowledge within a field, which is measured by individual subject-area tests.

"The third is motivation and persistence, and those qualities are probably best measured by examining a person's biographical record and ratings by undergraduate faculty," said Kuncel. "For instance, has the person undertaken work that shows drive and initiative? That's also necessary for ultimate success in graduate school."

---University of Minnesota

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